{"id":2455150,"date":"2023-01-10T15:49:10","date_gmt":"2023-01-10T20:49:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/?p=2455150"},"modified":"2023-01-10T15:49:10","modified_gmt":"2023-01-10T20:49:10","slug":"long-duration-investing-not-the-cool-kids","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/long-duration-investing-not-the-cool-kids\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-Duration Investing &#8211; Not The Cool Kids"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dear fellow investors,&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, in the song, \u201cCool Kids.\u201d It can teach us about what it takes to succeed in long-duration common <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/fast-money-in-stocks\/\">stock investing<\/a> currently.<\/p>\n\n\t<!-- Begin Mailigen Signup Form -->\n\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\t\tif (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') {\n\t\t\tdocument.write('<scr' + 'ipt type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/jquery.js\"><\/scr' + 'ipt>');\n\t\t}\n\t<\/script>\n\t<script language=\"javascript\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/scripts.js\"><\/script>\n\t<script language=\"javascript\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/subscribe2.js\"><\/script>\n\t<div id=\"MG-placeholder\">\n\t<style>.first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important}\n\n\tform.ebook-styles .error,\n\tform.ebook-styles #error {\n\t\tcolor:#d00;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields h1,\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo,\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer {\n\t\tdisplay: none;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields {\n\t\tfont-size: 12px;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields p {\n\t\tmargin: 4px 0;\n\t}\n\t<\/style>\n<div style=\"background:#eee;display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-bottom:24px;padding:40px;\">\n<div class=\"two-thirds first\">\n<p style=\"font-size:22px;margin:0 0 10px;\">Get The Full Series in PDF<\/p>\n\t<p style=\"line-height:1.4;margin-bottom:0;\">Get the entire 10-part series on Charlie Munger in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues.<\/p>\n\t<form action=\"https:\/\/valuewalk.us4.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=c3eb7a1d092fc854772c834e0&amp;id=f6f5bdb8b5\" method=\"post\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" target=\"_blank\" novalidate>\n <div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n \n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-element mc-field-group \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-textWrap c1\"><input type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder='Email Address' name=\"EMAIL\" class=\"required af-element email\" id=\"mce-EMAIL\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-clear\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-element buttonContainer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe\" name=\"subscribe\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"button\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n \n \n\t<div id=\"mce-responses\" class=\"clear\">\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-error-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-success-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t<\/div>    <!-- real people should not fill this in and expect good things - do not remove this or risk form bot signups-->\n    <div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"b_c3eb7a1d092fc854772c834e0_f6f5bdb8b5\" tabindex=\"-1\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n    \n    <\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n\t<script type='text\/javascript' src='\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/downloads.mailchimp.com\/js\/mc-validate.js'><\/script><script type='text\/javascript'>(function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true);<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"one-third\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/Warren-Buffet-Charlie-Munger-ValueWalk-compound-interest.jpg\" alt=\"Charlie Munger eBook\" style=\"width:100%; height:auto\">\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- End Mailigen Signup Form -->\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/valuewalkpremium.com\/q4-2022-hedge-fund-letters-database-now-live\/\" target=\"_blank\"><em><strong>Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"ca-widget\" data-token=\"s1200a4dc6f6\">&nbsp;<\/div>\n<p><script async=\"\" defer=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.money.com\/embeds\/embedder.js?v=1\"><\/script><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>Find A Qualified Financial Advisor<\/h4>\n<p>Finding a qualified financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. <a href=\"https:\/\/smartasset.com\/retirement\/find-a-financial-planner?utm_source=valuewalk&amp;utm_campaign=val__falc_blurb&amp;utm_content=blurb_v1\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 fiduciary financial advisors in your area in 5 minutes<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests.<\/p>\n<p>If you're ready to be matched with local advisors that can help you achieve your financial goals, <a href=\"https:\/\/smartasset.com\/retirement\/find-a-financial-planner?utm_source=valuewalk&amp;utm_campaign=val__falc_blurb&amp;utm_content=blurb_v1\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">get started now<\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">She sees them walking in a straight line<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">That\u2019s not really her style<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">And they all got the same heartbeat<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">But hers is falling behind<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Nothing in this world could ever bring them down<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Yeah, they\u2019re invincible<\/p>\n<h2>Technology Stocks<\/h2>\n<p>Go back one year. Common stock investors were marching \u201cin a straight line\u201d on the FAANG stocks and a wide variety of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/energy-stocks-lead-as-technology-stocks-falter\/\">technology stocks<\/a>. They all had the same heartbeat and their prior decade\u2019s prosperity forced even value managers to conform or get tossed out of investor portfolios.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">I wish that I could be like the cool kids<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">\u2018Cause all the cool kids, they seem to fit in<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">I wish that I could be like the cool kids<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Like the cool kids<\/p>\n<p>There is an incredible psychological pull to be involved in stocks that have had a huge tailwind. The media and research communities climb all over the trend and only someone that has seen the movie, <em>Wall-E<\/em>, can imagine anything going wrong.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">He sees them talking with a big smile<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">But they haven\u2019t got a clue<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Yeah, they\u2019re living the good life<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Can\u2019t see what he is going through<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">They\u2019re driving fast cars<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">But they don\u2019t know where they\u2019re going<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">In the fast lane, living life without knowing<\/p>\n<p>Today they are driving fast electric cars and owning portfolios drowning in losses. They are buying the dips and making the case for this being a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>The analysts are reaffirming their buy recommendations as they lower their price targets. Attempting to reassure investors that the T.I.N.A. (There Is No Alternative) modality of the prior financial euphoria episode will get reestablished as the Federal Reserve Board raises rates to normalized levels.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">I wish that I could be like the cool kids<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">\u2018Cause all the cool kids, they seem to fit in<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">I wish that I could be like the cool kids<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\">Like the cool kids<\/p>\n<h2>Long-Duration Value Investors<\/h2>\n<p>In the stock-picking world of the last 40 years, we consider <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/warren-buffett\/\">Warren Buffett<\/a>, Charlie Munger, Peter Lynch, John Templeton and other long-duration value investors to be the \u201ccool kids.\u201d They took dramatically less risk by investing where others feared to tread and required a high margin of safety. They bought part of a company as if they owned the entire business.<\/p>\n<p>In today\u2019s stock market, this means to us investing in the oil and gas industry (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/buffetts-berkshire-gobbles-a-further-6-million-oxy-shares-see-what-else-the-fund-traded-recently\/\">OXY<\/a>, OVV, COP), the home building industry (DHI, LEN), the banking business (JPM, BAC and AXP), the Class A Mall REITs (SPG, MAC) and in meritorious\/left for dead media stocks like Warner Discovery (WBD).<\/p>\n<p>Happy New Year and, of course, fear stock market failure!<\/p>\n<p>Warm regards,<\/p>\n<p>William Smead<\/p>\n<p><strong>The information contained in this missive represents Smead Capital Management\u2019s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice and are subject to change. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bill Smead, CIO, wrote this article. It should not be assumed that investing in any securities mentioned above will or will not be profitable. <\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Portfolio composition is subject to change at any time and references to specific securities, industries and sectors in this letter are not recommendations to purchase or sell any particular security. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong> In preparing this document, SCM has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. A list of all recommendations made by Smead Capital Management within the past twelve-month period is available upon request.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a92023 Smead Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This Missive and others are available at <a href=\"https:\/\/smeadcap.com\/missives\/not-the-cool-kids\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">www.smeadcap.com<\/a><\/p>\n ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dear fellow investors,&nbsp; As we start the year 2023, we are reminded of the profound poetry from the band, Echosmith, &#8230; <a title=\"Long-Duration Investing &#8211; Not The Cool Kids\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/long-duration-investing-not-the-cool-kids\/\" aria-label=\"More on Long-Duration Investing &#8211; Not The Cool Kids\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7830,"featured_media":2453172,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"no","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6640,10691],"tags":[663772,663150],"states":[],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Umair Tariq","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2455150"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7830"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2455150"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2455150\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2453172"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2455150"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2455150"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2455150"},{"taxonomy":"states","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/states?post=2455150"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}