{"id":2455488,"date":"2023-01-13T17:14:27","date_gmt":"2023-01-13T22:14:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/?p=2455488"},"modified":"2023-01-13T17:14:27","modified_gmt":"2023-01-13T22:14:27","slug":"which-will-it-be-another-roaring-20s-or-stagflationary-70s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/which-will-it-be-another-roaring-20s-or-stagflationary-70s\/","title":{"rendered":"Which Will It Be &#8211; Another Roaring 20s, Or Stagflationary 70s?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For weekend reading, Gary Alexander, senior writer at Navellier &amp; Associates, offers the following commentary:<\/p>\n<p><strong>The personality of each decade often comes clear in the year ending in 3<\/strong>: For instance, grandfatherly Ike took office in January 1953, with Lucy and Uncle Miltie defining our TV life after the end of wars abroad in Korea and civil war at home with McCarthy.<\/p>\n<p>The 1960s began starkly after the shocking assassination of President John Kennedy on November 22, 1963, and the Beatles musical invasion the next week. The inflationary <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/stagflation-the-worse-for-us-the-better-for-gold\/\">1970s<\/a> began with the Yom Kippur War in October 1973 and Arab Oil embargo that followed.<\/p>\n\n\t<!-- Begin Mailigen Signup Form -->\n\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\t\tif (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') {\n\t\t\tdocument.write('<scr' + 'ipt type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/jquery.js\"><\/scr' + 'ipt>');\n\t\t}\n\t<\/script>\n\t<script language=\"javascript\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/scripts.js\"><\/script>\n\t<script language=\"javascript\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/subscribe2.js\"><\/script>\n\t<div id=\"MG-placeholder\">\n\t<style>.first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important}\n\n\tform.ebook-styles .error,\n\tform.ebook-styles #error {\n\t\tcolor:#d00;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields h1,\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo,\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer {\n\t\tdisplay: none;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields {\n\t\tfont-size: 12px;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields p {\n\t\tmargin: 4px 0;\n\t}\n\t<\/style>\n<div style=\"background:#eee;display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-bottom:24px;padding:40px;\">\n<div class=\"two-thirds first\">\n<p style=\"font-size:22px;margin:0 0 10px;\">Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF<\/p>\n\t<p style=\"line-height:1.4;margin-bottom:0;\">Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues<\/p>\n\t<form action=\"https:\/\/valuewalk.us4.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=c3eb7a1d092fc854772c834e0&amp;id=f6f5bdb8b5\" method=\"post\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" target=\"_blank\" novalidate>\n <div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n \n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-element mc-field-group \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-textWrap c1\"><input type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder='Email Address' name=\"EMAIL\" class=\"required af-element email\" id=\"mce-EMAIL\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-clear\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-element buttonContainer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe\" name=\"subscribe\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"button\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n \n \n\t<div id=\"mce-responses\" class=\"clear\">\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-error-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-success-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t<\/div>    <!-- real people should not fill this in and expect good things - do not remove this or risk form bot signups-->\n    <div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"b_c3eb7a1d092fc854772c834e0_f6f5bdb8b5\" tabindex=\"-1\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n    \n    <\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n\t<script type='text\/javascript' src='\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/downloads.mailchimp.com\/js\/mc-validate.js'><\/script><script type='text\/javascript'>(function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true);<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"one-third\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Singleton-1.jpg\" alt=\"Henry Singleton eBook\" style=\"width:100%; height:auto\">\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- End Mailigen Signup Form -->\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/valuewalkpremium.com\/q4-2022-hedge-fund-letters-database-now-live\/\" target=\"_blank\"><em><strong>Q4 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"ca-widget\" data-token=\"sad9d02c0797\">&nbsp;<\/div>\n<p><script async=\"\" defer=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.money.com\/embeds\/embedder.js?v=1\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>I could expand such scenarios, but let me demonstrate by focusing on this week in 1923 and 1973 and ask \u2013 <strong>Are we on the verge of another Roaring Twenties, or another Staglationary Seventies? (Or neither?)<\/strong><\/p>\n<h2>A New Dawn in America: Thursday, January 4, 1923<\/h2>\n<p>Everybody knows the story of the Jazz Age and the stock market mania of the 20s. Jazz, prohibition, and radio were born together, with the first great recordings by Louis Armstrong, Jelly Roll Morton, the New Orleans Rhythm Kings, and many other jazz pioneers in 1923, abetted by records but supercharged by radio.<\/p>\n<p>On Thursday, January 4, 1923, the first radio network in the U.S. was created when the original AT&amp;T company used special lines to broadcast the same programs simultaneously on New York City\u2019s WEAF and Boston\u2019s WNAC. That included jazz music, sporting events, politics, and vital news events.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2455491\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Roaring-20s.png\" alt=\"Roaring 20s\" width=\"624\" height=\"488\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Roaring-20s.png 624w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Roaring-20s-300x235.png 300w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Roaring-20s-537x420.png 537w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But on the same day, <strong>two spiritual prophets and an Irish \u201cinvestor\u201d signaled that Americans were ready for a sea change of growth after World War, global pandemic, hyper-inflation, and market crash<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>On that day, a starry-eyed French immigrant, <strong>Emile Coue<\/strong>, arrived in New York harbor, with his popular new secular Gospel, \u201cEvery day, in every way, I\u2019m getting better and better.\u201d It was a form of self-hypnotism that took America by storm.<\/p>\n<p>The \u201cMiracle Man of France\u201d began a three-week lecture tour of America, with one of his final stops speaking before thousands in Chicago, where he apparently made a paralyzed man rise and walk. Coue found Americans more accepting (gullible?) to his message than Europeans.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe French mind,\u201d he wrote in 1923, \u201cprefers first to discuss and argue on the fundamentals of a principle before inquiring into its practical adaptability to everyday life. The American mind, on the contrary, immediately sees the possibilities of it, and seeks\u2026 to carry the idea further\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<p>On that same day, evangelist <strong>Aimee Semple McPherson<\/strong> held her first service in the 5,300-seat Angelus Temple, or the Church of the Four-Square Gospel in the Echo Park neighborhood of Los Angeles. By 1925, she had 30,000 members and eventually a radio audience of millions, rivalling the popularity of Babe Ruth or Jack Dempsey.<\/p>\n<p>She was conservative but radical as she opened her revivals and services to black and brown races. The Ku Klux Klan once came to protest, but her message of love was apparently so convincing that the only evidence of the klan\u2019s protest was their discarded white robes and hoods.<\/p>\n<p>Which brings us to the Irish \u201cinvestor,\u201d Boston\u2019s <strong>Joseph F. Kennedy, Sr<\/strong>., who opened his New York brokerage office in the Waldorf Astoria, using several telephone and telegraph lines to contact the stock room floor.<\/p>\n<p>Within a decade, he made a $2 million fortune <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/stock-positions\/\">trading stocks<\/a> (through insider trading, price manipulation, then \u201cshorting\u201d stocks in 1929), before becoming the first head of the SEC. He made another fortune in bootleg hooch, although this evidence is sketchier, as its bottom line is off the books.<\/p>\n<p>Throughout this all, Calvin Coolidge\u2019s Secretary of the Treasury, <strong>Andrew Mellon<\/strong>, cut taxes and business regulations and basically allowed business leaders the run of the nation, as the Jazz Age grew jazzier.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of which, the #1 most popular song of the week of January 6-12, 1923, was George Gershwin\u2019s hit for the George White Scandals of 1922, with words by his brother Ira (using a pen name), and Buddy De Sylva: \u201cI\u2019ll Build a Stairway to Paradise,\u201d which fit the message of Aimee and Emile like a glove:<\/p>\n<p><strong>I\u2019ll Build a Stairway to Paradise<\/strong> (#1 Song, January 6-12, 1923)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Verse<\/strong> (in part)<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s madness, to be always sitting around in sadness,<\/p>\n<p>When you could be learning the steps of gladness.<\/p>\n<p>Begin today! You\u2019ll find it nice,<\/p>\n<p>(It\u2019s) the quickest way to paradise.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Chorus<\/strong> (in part)<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ll build a stairway to Paradise<\/p>\n<p>With a new step ev\u2019ry day!<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m gonna get there at any price;<\/p>\n<p>Stand aside, I\u2019m on my way!<\/p>\n<div class=\"ca-widget\" data-token=\"k8f5c9ac62a4\">&nbsp;<\/div>\n<p><script async=\"\" defer=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/secure.money.com\/embeds\/embedder.js?v=1\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Thursday, January 11, 1973 \u2013 The Day the Market Peaked (for a Decade)<\/h2>\n<p>January 11 marked the absolute peak of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/is-there-a-relationship-between-the-stock-market-and-gdp\/\">stock market<\/a> in the 1970s, a mark it would not exceed for nearly a decade in nominal terms, and not for over a decade in \u201creal\u201d (inflation-adjusted terms).<\/p>\n<p>On January 11, 1973, the Dow reached a then-record high of 1051.70. Following that peak, the Dow fell by nearly half (-45%) by the end of 1974, the worst bear market for the second half of the 20th Century.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Looking at that specific date in context, what caused the market to peak on this day and then go down?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>(1) President Richard Nixon ended the wage and price control program he began in August of 1971. In less than 18 months of this misguided program, the national debt, inflation, and unemployment were all rising steadily, despite controls, and soon were rising even faster, after the artificial controls were lifted.<\/p>\n<p>(2) Also on this date in 1973, the trial of the Watergate burglars began in Washington DC with the first convictions coming by month\u2019s end.<\/p>\n<p>(3) As hard-core, baseball fans know, January 11, 1973, is also the beginning of the decline of Western Civilization: That\u2019s the day the American League adopted the \u201cdesignated hitter\u201d rule, where pitchers did not have to take a turn at bat \u2013 the end of well-rounded athleticism in The Great American Pastime.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2455490\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average.png\" alt=\"DJIA\" width=\"624\" height=\"384\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average.png 624w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/Dow-Jones-Industrial-Average-356x220.png 356w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 624px) 100vw, 624px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Seriously, January 1973 marked the end of the fruits of one era of bad leadership (the Vietnam War under LBJ) and the beginning of another (Watergate under Nixon), with several other crises, plus inept economic leadership from two clueless Fed chairmen, Arthur Burns and G. William Miller.<\/p>\n<p><strong>I\u2019m open for suggestions, but it seems like 2023 is a near match for 1973, and a polar opposite of 1923, but nothing is set in stone<\/strong>. We can learn from history by reading more about the 1920s and avoid the mistakes of the 1930s or 1970s. These swings are avoidable by reading and heeding the lessons of history.<\/p>\n<p>And, by the way, the #1 hit songs in January 1973 were far from Building a Stairway to Paradise:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>For the weeks of January 6 and 13: the #1 song was \u201cYou\u2019re So Vain,\u201d by Carly Simon<\/li>\n<li>For the weeks of January 20 and 27: #1 was \u201cSuperstition\u201d by Stevie Wonder<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For weekend reading, Gary Alexander, senior writer at Navellier &amp; Associates, offers the following commentary: The personality of each decade &#8230; <a title=\"Which Will It Be &#8211; Another Roaring 20s, Or Stagflationary 70s?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/which-will-it-be-another-roaring-20s-or-stagflationary-70s\/\" aria-label=\"More on Which Will It Be &#8211; Another Roaring 20s, Or Stagflationary 70s?\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21886,"featured_media":2443222,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"no","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6640],"tags":[659305,659867],"states":[],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Umair Tariq","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2455488"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21886"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2455488"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2455488\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2443222"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2455488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2455488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2455488"},{"taxonomy":"states","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/states?post=2455488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}