{"id":2461972,"date":"2023-04-10T12:05:09","date_gmt":"2023-04-10T16:05:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/?p=2461972"},"modified":"2023-04-10T12:05:11","modified_gmt":"2023-04-10T16:05:11","slug":"why-more-sp-500-upside","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/why-more-sp-500-upside\/","title":{"rendered":"Why More S&#038;P 500 Upside"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>S&amp;P 500 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/sp-500s-short-term-outlook-remains-bullish-grinding-up-grinding-still\/\">bulls<\/a> are likely to do fine early next week, no matter the gathering technical and macroeconomic clouds. Take Friday\u2018s NFPs that I called to come not above 240K. As for the rest of my prediction (not being surprised by low 200K or more probably a figure starting with 1xxK), I\u2018ll have to wait for the revisions in the months ahead \u2013 and they will meaningfully come, because that\u2018s how typically non-farm payrolls work.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have seen that this week already with unemployment claims (initial or continuing), and the NFPs employment change, Challenger job cuts and JOLTS job openings paint a more comprehensive picture for me \u2013 it\u2018s only reasonable to expect deteriorating job market data ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\t<!-- Begin Mailigen Signup Form -->\n\t<script type=\"text\/javascript\">\n\t\tif (typeof jQuery == 'undefined') {\n\t\t\tdocument.write('<scr' + 'ipt type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/jquery.js\"><\/scr' + 'ipt>');\n\t\t}\n\t<\/script>\n\t<script language=\"javascript\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/scripts.js\"><\/script>\n\t<script language=\"javascript\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/list.mailigen.com\/js\/subscribe2.js\"><\/script>\n\t<div id=\"MG-placeholder\">\n\t<style>.first{clear:both;margin-left:0}.one-third{width:31.034482758621%;float:left;margin-left:3.448275862069%}.two-thirds{width:65.51724137931%;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element input{border:0;border-radius:0;padding:8px}form.ebook-styles .af-element{width:220px;float:left}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer{width:115px;float:left;margin-left: 6px;}form.ebook-styles .af-element.buttonContainer input.submit{width:115px;padding:10px 6px 8px;text-transform:uppercase;border-radius:0;border:0;font-size:15px}form.ebook-styles .af-body.af-standards input.submit{width:115px}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy{width:100%;font-size:12px;margin:10px auto 0}form.ebook-styles .af-element.privacyPolicy p{font-size:11px;margin-bottom:0}form.ebook-styles .af-body input.text{height:40px;padding:2px 10px !important}\n\n\tform.ebook-styles .error,\n\tform.ebook-styles #error {\n\t\tcolor:#d00;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields h1,\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-logo,\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields #mg-footer {\n\t\tdisplay: none;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields {\n\t\tfont-size: 12px;\n\t}\n\tform.ebook-styles .formfields p {\n\t\tmargin: 4px 0;\n\t}\n\t<\/style>\n<div style=\"background:#eee;display:block;overflow:hidden;margin-bottom:24px;padding:40px;\">\n<div class=\"two-thirds first\">\n<p style=\"font-size:22px;margin:0 0 10px;\">Get The Full Henry Singleton Series in PDF<\/p>\n\t<p style=\"line-height:1.4;margin-bottom:0;\">Get the entire 4-part series on Henry Singleton in PDF. Save it to your desktop, read it on your tablet, or email to your colleagues<\/p>\n\t<form action=\"https:\/\/valuewalk.us4.list-manage.com\/subscribe\/post?u=c3eb7a1d092fc854772c834e0&amp;id=f6f5bdb8b5\" method=\"post\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" name=\"mc-embedded-subscribe-form\" class=\"validate\" target=\"_blank\" novalidate>\n <div id=\"mc_embed_signup_scroll\">\n \n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-element mc-field-group \">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-textWrap c1\"><input type=\"email\" value=\"\" placeholder='Email Address' name=\"EMAIL\" class=\"required af-element email\" id=\"mce-EMAIL\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-clear\"><\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"af-element buttonContainer\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<input type=\"submit\" value=\"Subscribe\" name=\"subscribe\" id=\"mc-embedded-subscribe\" class=\"button\">\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n \n \n\t<div id=\"mce-responses\" class=\"clear\">\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-error-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t\t<div class=\"response\" id=\"mce-success-response\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div>\n\t<\/div>    <!-- real people should not fill this in and expect good things - do not remove this or risk form bot signups-->\n    <div style=\"position: absolute; left: -5000px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><input type=\"text\" name=\"b_c3eb7a1d092fc854772c834e0_f6f5bdb8b5\" tabindex=\"-1\" value=\"\"><\/div>\n    \n    <\/div>\n\t<\/form>\n\t<script type='text\/javascript' src='\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/downloads.mailchimp.com\/js\/mc-validate.js'><\/script><script type='text\/javascript'>(function($) {window.fnames = new Array(); window.ftypes = new Array();fnames[0]='EMAIL';ftypes[0]='email';}(jQuery));var $mcj = jQuery.noConflict(true);<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"one-third\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/Singleton-1.jpg\" alt=\"Henry Singleton eBook\" style=\"width:100%; height:auto\">\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><!-- End Mailigen Signup Form -->\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/valuewalkpremium.com\/q1-2023-hedge-fund-letters-now-live\/\" target=\"_blank\"><em><strong>Q1 2023 hedge fund letters, conferences and more<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"ca-widget\" data-token=\"k8f5c9ac62a4\"><\/div><script async defer src=\"https:\/\/secure.money.com\/embeds\/embedder.js?v=1\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, the key theme of this week is going to be Wednesday\u2018s CPI \u2013 look for the headline YoY figure to come in at 5.4% (no higher than 5.5% really), but for the core CPI to remain more resilient. The market will in my view again take that as \"the Fed will really pivot now\" (really this time), even though the core CPI wouldn\u2018t support that notion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I continue to think the market is getting it terribly wrong expecting 100bp <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/sp-500s-reversal-cuts-arent-bullish\/\">rate cuts<\/a> this year \u2013 the Fed would continue keeping Fed funds rate at 5.25% (that means one more hike is ahead, and then a pause). First though, the poor earnings would catch up with S&amp;P 500, followed by more real economy deterioration in the face of restrictive Fed and rising oil prices (these are the shadow Fed funds rate).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2018m discussing outlook for other markets in today\u2018s rich real assets chart section, and that includes a heads up for important PMs, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/stagnation-in-shale\/\">crude oil<\/a> and dollar moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep enjoying the lively <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter feed<\/a> via keeping my tab open at all times \u2013 on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/M_Kingsley\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Telegram<\/a> that never misses sending you <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\/status\/1636717308289732608\" target=\"_blank\">notification whenever I tweet anything substantial<\/a>, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, make sure you\u2018re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2018s move right into the charts (all courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.stockcharts.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">www.stockcharts.com<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"778\" height=\"587\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SPX.jpg\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" class=\"wp-image-2461983\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SPX.jpg 778w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SPX-300x226.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SPX-768x579.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 778px) 100vw, 778px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Monday\u2018s close below 4,115 isn\u2018t the leading scenario, and stocks are likely to approach (take on) low 4,160s resistance, which would be broken in the latter half of next week. Monday or Tuesday really isn\u2018t yet time for&nbsp; 4,078, let alone 4,039.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"ca-widget\" data-token=\"s90dd0cac657\"><\/div><script async defer src=\"https:\/\/secure.money.com\/embeds\/embedder.js?v=1\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Credit Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"767\" height=\"348\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-2-HYG-1.jpg\" alt=\"Credit Markets\" class=\"wp-image-2461984\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-2-HYG-1.jpg 767w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-2-HYG-1-300x136.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 767px) 100vw, 767px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/investors-will-not-buy-bonds\/\">Bonds <\/a>will continue underperforming, and my earlier points about fresh corporate debt issuance slowing to a crawl amid continued junk bonds underperformance, still apply. Add commercial real estate dragging down regional banks (major CRE loans originator), deposits situation, and you know all the ingredients for KRE and financials underperformance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Risk taking is already poor in this narrow rally, also if you look at Russell 2000 and detailed sectoral overview in the introduction to <a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/stock-trading-signals\/2023\/04\/07\/nfps-expectations\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Friday\u2018s article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you for having read today\u2018s free analysis, which is a small part of <strong>my site\u2018s daily premium <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/join\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Monica's Trading Signals<\/a> covering all the markets you're used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium <a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/join\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Monica's Stock Signals<\/a> presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While at my site, you can subscribe to the <strong>free <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/trading-service-sign-up\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Monica\u2018s Insider Club<\/a> for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turn notifications on, and have my <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Twitter profile<\/strong><\/a> (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing \u2013 such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Monica Kingsley<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stock Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Copper Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bitcoin Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.monicakingsley.co\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>www.monicakingsley.co<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"mailto:mk@monicakingsley.co\"><strong>mk@monicakingsley.co<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and\/or sales of those securities without notice.<\/em><\/p>\n ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P 500 bulls are likely to do fine early next week, no matter the gathering technical and macroeconomic clouds. Take &#8230; <a title=\"Why More S&#038;P 500 Upside\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/why-more-sp-500-upside\/\" aria-label=\"More on Why More S&#038;P 500 Upside\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21575,"featured_media":2458095,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6640],"tags":[659027,661078],"states":[],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Umair Tariq","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2461972"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21575"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2461972"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2461972\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2461987,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2461972\/revisions\/2461987"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2458095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2461972"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2461972"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2461972"},{"taxonomy":"states","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/states?post=2461972"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}