{"id":2463103,"date":"2023-04-24T12:47:41","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T16:47:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/?p=2463103"},"modified":"2023-04-24T12:47:43","modified_gmt":"2023-04-24T16:47:43","slug":"sp-500-bears-lose-ground-no-fear-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/sp-500-bears-lose-ground-no-fear-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 Bears Lose Ground &#8211; No Fear Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>S&amp;P 500 bears lost gained ground early in the Friday\u2018s session \u2013 the false dawn in manufacturing (and services) PMIs (similar to real estate) didn\u2018t spur enough Fed tightening bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/technology-is-bullish-on-oil\/\">oil <\/a>corrected to my $77.50 Friday, that\u2018s though not enough to support all out rebound in PMIs <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\/status\/1650455739859714048\" target=\"_blank\">unless the dollar agrees<\/a>, and manufacturing would turn lower again over the coming 2+ months as <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\/status\/1650456591269765122\" target=\"_blank\">LEIs continue declining for 12 months<\/a> in a row and counting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if there is calm in the banking sector, the Fed is set to not only raise by 25bp in May, but also to continue shrinking its balance sheet. Meanwhile, commercial banks experience continued deposits outflow, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/warning-dark-days-are-closing-in-on-apple\/\">Apple <\/a>Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) has entered with its account offering of over 4%, and fresh credit creation is hampered, adding to liquidity and M2 woes as much as Treasury having to turn around and start replenishing its General Account at the Fed soon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"ca-widget\" data-token=\"k8f5c9ac62a4\"><\/div><script async defer src=\"https:\/\/secure.money.com\/embeds\/embedder.js?v=1\"><\/script>\n\n\n\n<p>For now, the relative calm allowing for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\/status\/1650278338169126914\" target=\"_blank\">tired S&amp;P 500 upswing continuation<\/a>, goes on as <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\/status\/1650453867807617024\" target=\"_blank\">bears keep fumbling intraday<\/a> on Monday too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The buyers are though running on borrowed time, and the downside remains greater than the upside \u2013 not only positive seasonality would be gone, but monetary policy won\u2018t really change in 2023 no matter how many rate cuts are priced into the bond market. Debt ceiling won\u2018t be resolved too quickly either \u2013 it\u2018ll still turn into a drama.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While earnings aren\u2018t so far outdoing the dialed back expectations on the downside (-6.2% decline this quarter is on track), <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/the-housing-market-has-begun-to-shift-and-now-buyers-are-in-charge\/\">housing <\/a>lull is set to go, the job market\u2018s forward looking indicators are on a solidly deteriorating track already, and core inflation is to remain sticky \u2013 not allowing for jubilation or Fed victory declaration (Powell conference will surprise next week).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, the ever narrowing market leadership (one tenth of the S&amp;P 500 stocks explaining around 90% of returns this year \u2013 market breadth I took on amply in <a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/stock-trading-signals\/2023\/04\/16\/inflation-recession-and-the-fed\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">the extensive analysis one week ago<\/a>), reminds me of late 2021 topping process, and underlines that markets are most vulnerable when the leadership is narrow (hello AAPL and company).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep enjoying the lively <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter feed<\/a> via keeping my tab open at all times \u2013 on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Combine with <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/M_Kingsley\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Telegram<\/a> that never misses sending you <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\/status\/1636717308289732608\" target=\"_blank\">notification whenever I tweet anything substantial<\/a>, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, make sure you\u2018re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have my Twitter profile open in a separate tab with notifications on so as to benefit from extra intraday calls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2018s move right into the charts (all courtesy of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.stockcharts.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">www.stockcharts.com<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Outlook<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"777\" height=\"588\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SP-500-8.jpg\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" class=\"wp-image-2463105\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SP-500-8.jpg 777w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SP-500-8-300x227.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-SP-500-8-768x581.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 777px) 100vw, 777px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>In the very short-term, this looks like downswing rejection \u2013 the best the bear could do Friday, was a draw. Not a break below 4,136, but coming back to the midpoint of 4,115 and 4,188.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When there is no follow through selling (and when even on reasons good enough it gets rejected as if the market had no fear of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/do-interest-rates-go-down-in-a-recession\/\">recession<\/a>), the buyers can continue grinding higher before meeting resistance first at 4,188, and then 4,209.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market breadth wouldn\u2018t though miraculously improve on such an upswing \u2013 the non-confirmations and red flags from bonds and smallcaps, would remain \u2013 no matter how great tech overall would continue doing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As stated on <a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/stock-trading-signals\/2023\/04\/21\/ism-liquidity-bets\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Friday<\/a>, for all the selling kicking in in NVDA and AAPL, this isn\u2018t yet enough \u2013 and TSLA is likely to retrace a modest part of its post earnings decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2018m waiting for a green light from XLF, XLI and XLB, which should start following XLC and XLU lower \u2013 we aren\u2018t yet there at this maximum bearish constellation, and following botched Friday and today, fresh earnings catalyst (many key companies reporting this week including MA) or hawkish Fed pronouncements conficting market\u2018s dovish turn perceptions (absent for now as it\u2018s pre FOMC), is required.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A picture speaks a thousand words &#8211; the prime candidate for rolling over in the tech behemoths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"694\" height=\"319\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-AAPL.jpg\" alt=\"Apple\" class=\"wp-image-2463104\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-AAPL.jpg 694w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-1-AAPL-300x138.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 694px) 100vw, 694px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Credit Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"772\" height=\"345\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-2-Credit-Markets.jpg\" alt=\"Credit Markets\" class=\"wp-image-2463106\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-2-Credit-Markets.jpg 772w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-2-Credit-Markets-300x134.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-2-Credit-Markets-768x343.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 772px) 100vw, 772px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/sp-500-continued-the-downside-breaking-key-support\/\">HYG <\/a>run higher into the closing bell, is the most concerning element of Friday\u2018s session \u2013 risk-off whiffs that are intraday rejected, haven\u2018t yet posed lasting obstacle to the buyers. That would change over the coming weeks with deteriorating economic data and stubborn inflation figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold, Silver and Miners<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"776\" height=\"344\" src=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-3-Gold-5.jpg\" alt=\"Gold\" class=\"wp-image-2463107\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-3-Gold-5.jpg 776w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-3-Gold-5-300x133.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/STS-3-Gold-5-768x340.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 776px) 100vw, 776px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>As I wrote in Friday\u2018s premium analysis, I was looking for dialing back of the recent optimism in precious metals and commodities, for oil at $77.50 ultimately not holding (check that next week) while copper breaks below $4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course the prior local lows in this correction for both <a href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/gold-price-outlook-for-april-2023\/\">gold <\/a>and silver would still more likely than not give (it\u2018s still below $1,970 and $24.10 respectively), but don\u2018t bet the farm on that thanks to the dillydallying dollar. The approaching recessionary data together with still tight Fed, would hurt \u2013 and neither USD, nor bonds have yet properly noticed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you for having read today\u2018s free analysis, which is a small part of <strong>my site\u2018s daily premium <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/join\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Monica&#8217;s Trading Signals<\/a> covering all the markets you&#8217;re used to (stocks, bonds, gold, silver, miners, oil, copper, cryptos), and of the daily premium <a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/join\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Monica&#8217;s Stock Signals<\/a> presenting stocks and bonds only. Both publications feature real-time trade calls and intraday updates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While at my site, you can subscribe to the <strong>free <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/monicakingsley.co\/trading-service-sign-up\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\">Monica\u2018s Insider Club<\/a> for instant publishing notifications and other content useful for making your own trade moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Turn notifications on, and have my <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monica___K\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Twitter profile<\/strong><\/a> (tweets only) opened in a fresh tab so as not to miss a thing \u2013 such as extra intraday opportunities. Thanks for all your support that makes this great ride possible!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thank you,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Monica Kingsley<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stock Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Copper Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bitcoin Trading Signals<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.monicakingsley.co\/\" rel=\"nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>www.monicakingsley.co<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"mailto:mk@monicakingsley.co\"><strong>mk@monicakingsley.co<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><em>All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and\/or sales of those securities without notice.<\/em><\/p>\n ","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P 500 bears lost gained ground early in the Friday\u2018s session \u2013 the false dawn in manufacturing (and services) PMIs &#8230; <a title=\"S&#038;P 500 Bears Lose Ground &#8211; No Fear Recession\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/sp-500-bears-lose-ground-no-fear-recession\/\" aria-label=\"More on S&#038;P 500 Bears Lose Ground &#8211; No Fear Recession\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21575,"featured_media":2458095,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_mi_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6640],"tags":[658975,659042,659027,661078],"states":[],"acf":[],"modified_by":"Umair Tariq","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2463103"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21575"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2463103"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2463103\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2463111,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2463103\/revisions\/2463111"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2458095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2463103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2463103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2463103"},{"taxonomy":"states","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/states?post=2463103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}